It's been a while since the trade happened, and I've chosen tonight to write because this was the night that the season ended. Statistically speaking, the Nuggets have almost no chance to move on to the next round.
There are a couple of ways that I see this series:
1) It's a damn shame the seedings ended up the way they did. Of all the teams in the Western Conference, the Thunder was the worst matchup. They have Lakers-type size and a young, big, energetic backcourt. Nene, not the most dominant guy down low, won't put it in at a high clip, especially with the skill that Ibaka, Perkins and Mohammed defend. They don't foul. Lawson and Felton can't create sufficient space to live up to their potentials as shooters. Sure, they can create, but the Thunder close out extremely well. When the guards penetrate, the Thunder's size causes a lot of missed layups. Defensively, it's impossible to guard the Thunder when Harden, Maynor, Westbrook and Durant shoot the way they've been. They're all dimensional enough that defenders have to respect them everywhere on the court. More heartbreaking for me is the way the Thunder's size manifests itself for them offensively: offensive rebounds. And they dominate the glass. Give me the Lakers, Spurs--anybody but these guys. But these guys is who we got.
2) Taking all of the above into account, who knew what was going to happen? And considering how the Nuggets performed in the second half of the season, there would've been a measure of justice to the Nuggets making a run in the postseason. It's been a triumph of the team concept. They didn't tank to get a favorable matchup. The figurative basketball gods should have rewarded this team, especially in a season in which LeBron and Carmelo so demonstrate the clout of the superstar.
But this season is over now. They're not winning four of the next five. Not against this team, which could well go on to win the championship. (I think they will. The impact of the Perkins trade may prove to be historical. Presti got himself a title this year.)
So what's next for this team? I assume that Felton will start next season (whenever that may be) on another team. He deserves to start. But it is with great regret that I say that. Considering he's under contract, the team could apply its leverage to keep him and guarantee another playoff season. That is how effective having both Lawson and Felton is. But Felton is gone, and rightfully so.
Recommendations:
Resign Nene and Afflalo; make them, Lawson, Gallinari and Mozgov the nucleus of this team. Resign Martin and keep him, Chandler, Koufos, and Andersen as role players. Let JR go and try to trade Harrington. Grant Felton his wish, but make sure a serviceable point guard comes back in return. (I wonder whether Chauncey opts out. He'd be a perfect backup combo guard. It's time for him to recede to the background.)
Last thing for 2010-11: I'd like to thank Masai Ujiri and Josh Kroenke, George Karl and this team for providing for the second-best stretch of ball I've ever had the pleasure to enjoy. It was fun to watch while it lasted.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Carmelo-Era Postmortem, Part One
(For those that don't know, my NBA team is the Nuggets.)
First of all, the Knicks got the better of this trade, at least in the short term. Even with the depleted team, they have enough to feed on the dregs of the Eastern Conference and be at either 5 or 6 going into the playoffs. Even as currently constituted, they could be a perennial 5 seed.
The key to this trade from the Knicks' short-term perspective may well be Chauncey Billups, who is still efficient enough to give them 12 to 15 a game; more importantly, however, is his leadership influence. I understand that that has become something of a cliche, but having seen what he did for Denver a couple years ago, that leadership influence rings true. The problem with Chauncey, however, is his penchant for taking low-percentage shots in crunch time. He earned the nickname of Mr. Big Shot during two deep playoff runs with the Pistons, one of them resulting in a championship. But if I remember correctly, he was sharing a lot of those crunch time shots with Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. Upon coming to Denver, however, he took it upon himself to take a larger share of those crunch time shots. The problem with that is that in spite of his nickname, he isn't particularly good in the clutch. Statistics bear that out. The irony in Chauncey's penchant is that Carmelo may be the most clutch shooter in the league, statistically speaking.
My contention is that as Chauncey was given much of the credit for the Western Conference Finals run in the media back in 2009, he was shooting and missing the Nuggets out of the playoffs. There were several situations when games against the Lakers were hanging in the balance--often with Denver in the league--in which Chauncey decides to take a long three and provide the dagger, only to miss. I feel that those possessions were best used on Carmelo, and they weren't.
If I were a Knicks fan, I'd hope that Chauncey reverts to his Pistons-era ways and lets Melo or Amare take the shots when the game is on the line. I think Knicks fans have reason to be optimistic to that end because Amare is a much more viable scoring threat in the post than is Nene.
D'Antoni will not be able to push the ball like he wants to now with Billups replacing Felton. Billups is a half-court point guard through and through. I do believe, however, that D'Antoni has the offensive acumen to change his philosophy. I'm interested in seeing how that plays out. Offensively, I believe the Knicks will be more than fine. Stoudemire, Anthony, Billups and Fields are all capable. Defensively, however, they might be the most vulnerable team of any in the top half of the league. Any team with a decent frontcourt (Boston, Orlando, Miami*) will be able to do serious damage. Any team with a scoring point guard (Chicago, Miami*) will be able to do serious damage. That's why they're not sniffing a championship this year. They'll put up 110 a game, but give up 114.
*LeBron is simultaneously a great small forward and a great point guard. Carmelo, however, seems to do a consistently good job of guarding him.
It's hard to speak on New York's prospects going forward because so much is in play. A healthy Chris Paul makes them a title contender. Deron Williams does not. But Paul is over a year away. The new CBA may make it difficult even then to afford him. Without Paul, maybe New York wins 48 games next season and loses in the first round. Does D'Antoni stay in that situation? Probably. But will new GM Isiah Thomas want him around? Will Amare's knees hold up to another couple of seasons in the D'Antoni system? I've jumped to a few conclusions here, but none of them is conceivable.
Ultimately, I'd have to see a lot more before I consider the Knicks a title contender. Even with Carmelo and Amare, I don't see them beating Boston, Orlando, Miami or Chicago. As a Nuggets fan, that provides some consolation. The worst thing that could happen would be to see Carmelo win a championship within a few years of this trade. I think disaster will be averted.
I don't doubt that Carmelo believes he'll be able to win in New York, but I still believe he had just as good a chance to win in Denver as he does now. Denver sheds a lot of bad contracts this summer. Who knows how the Nuggets might have used that money to build around Carmelo? Bryant, Duncan and Nowitzski are heading into the twilights of their careers. We could have seen Carmelo and Durant duke it out over the next decade. Instead, Carmelo can now look forward to spending the next ten years of his career losing to James and Wade, Rose and Howard.
First of all, the Knicks got the better of this trade, at least in the short term. Even with the depleted team, they have enough to feed on the dregs of the Eastern Conference and be at either 5 or 6 going into the playoffs. Even as currently constituted, they could be a perennial 5 seed.
The key to this trade from the Knicks' short-term perspective may well be Chauncey Billups, who is still efficient enough to give them 12 to 15 a game; more importantly, however, is his leadership influence. I understand that that has become something of a cliche, but having seen what he did for Denver a couple years ago, that leadership influence rings true. The problem with Chauncey, however, is his penchant for taking low-percentage shots in crunch time. He earned the nickname of Mr. Big Shot during two deep playoff runs with the Pistons, one of them resulting in a championship. But if I remember correctly, he was sharing a lot of those crunch time shots with Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. Upon coming to Denver, however, he took it upon himself to take a larger share of those crunch time shots. The problem with that is that in spite of his nickname, he isn't particularly good in the clutch. Statistics bear that out. The irony in Chauncey's penchant is that Carmelo may be the most clutch shooter in the league, statistically speaking.
My contention is that as Chauncey was given much of the credit for the Western Conference Finals run in the media back in 2009, he was shooting and missing the Nuggets out of the playoffs. There were several situations when games against the Lakers were hanging in the balance--often with Denver in the league--in which Chauncey decides to take a long three and provide the dagger, only to miss. I feel that those possessions were best used on Carmelo, and they weren't.
If I were a Knicks fan, I'd hope that Chauncey reverts to his Pistons-era ways and lets Melo or Amare take the shots when the game is on the line. I think Knicks fans have reason to be optimistic to that end because Amare is a much more viable scoring threat in the post than is Nene.
D'Antoni will not be able to push the ball like he wants to now with Billups replacing Felton. Billups is a half-court point guard through and through. I do believe, however, that D'Antoni has the offensive acumen to change his philosophy. I'm interested in seeing how that plays out. Offensively, I believe the Knicks will be more than fine. Stoudemire, Anthony, Billups and Fields are all capable. Defensively, however, they might be the most vulnerable team of any in the top half of the league. Any team with a decent frontcourt (Boston, Orlando, Miami*) will be able to do serious damage. Any team with a scoring point guard (Chicago, Miami*) will be able to do serious damage. That's why they're not sniffing a championship this year. They'll put up 110 a game, but give up 114.*LeBron is simultaneously a great small forward and a great point guard. Carmelo, however, seems to do a consistently good job of guarding him.
It's hard to speak on New York's prospects going forward because so much is in play. A healthy Chris Paul makes them a title contender. Deron Williams does not. But Paul is over a year away. The new CBA may make it difficult even then to afford him. Without Paul, maybe New York wins 48 games next season and loses in the first round. Does D'Antoni stay in that situation? Probably. But will new GM Isiah Thomas want him around? Will Amare's knees hold up to another couple of seasons in the D'Antoni system? I've jumped to a few conclusions here, but none of them is conceivable.
Ultimately, I'd have to see a lot more before I consider the Knicks a title contender. Even with Carmelo and Amare, I don't see them beating Boston, Orlando, Miami or Chicago. As a Nuggets fan, that provides some consolation. The worst thing that could happen would be to see Carmelo win a championship within a few years of this trade. I think disaster will be averted.
I don't doubt that Carmelo believes he'll be able to win in New York, but I still believe he had just as good a chance to win in Denver as he does now. Denver sheds a lot of bad contracts this summer. Who knows how the Nuggets might have used that money to build around Carmelo? Bryant, Duncan and Nowitzski are heading into the twilights of their careers. We could have seen Carmelo and Durant duke it out over the next decade. Instead, Carmelo can now look forward to spending the next ten years of his career losing to James and Wade, Rose and Howard.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
