Carmelo-Era Postmortem, Part One

(For those that don't know, my NBA team is the Nuggets.)

First of all, the Knicks got the better of this trade, at least in the short term. Even with the depleted team, they have enough to feed on the dregs of the Eastern Conference and be at either 5 or 6 going into the playoffs. Even as currently constituted, they could be a perennial 5 seed.

The key to this trade from the Knicks' short-term perspective may well be Chauncey Billups, who is still efficient enough to give them 12 to 15 a game; more importantly, however, is his leadership influence. I understand that that has become something of a cliche, but having seen what he did for Denver a couple years ago, that leadership influence rings true. The problem with Chauncey, however, is his penchant for taking low-percentage shots in crunch time. He earned the nickname of Mr. Big Shot during two deep playoff runs with the Pistons, one of them resulting in a championship. But if I remember correctly, he was sharing a lot of those crunch time shots with Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton. Upon coming to Denver, however, he took it upon himself to take a larger share of those crunch time shots. The problem with that is that in spite of his nickname, he isn't particularly good in the clutch. Statistics bear that out. The irony in Chauncey's penchant is that Carmelo may be the most clutch shooter in the league, statistically speaking.

My contention is that as Chauncey was given much of the credit for the Western Conference Finals run in the media back in 2009, he was shooting and missing the Nuggets out of the playoffs. There were several situations when games against the Lakers were hanging in the balance--often with Denver in the league--in which Chauncey decides to take a long three and provide the dagger, only to miss. I feel that those possessions were best used on Carmelo, and they weren't.

If I were a Knicks fan, I'd hope that Chauncey reverts to his Pistons-era ways and lets Melo or Amare take the shots when the game is on the line. I think Knicks fans have reason to be optimistic to that end because Amare is a much more viable scoring threat in the post than is Nene.

D'Antoni will not be able to push the ball like he wants to now with Billups replacing Felton. Billups is a half-court point guard through and through. I do believe, however, that D'Antoni has the offensive acumen to change his philosophy. I'm interested in seeing how that plays out. Offensively, I believe the Knicks will be more than fine. Stoudemire, Anthony, Billups and Fields are all capable. Defensively, however, they might be the most vulnerable team of any in the top half of the league. Any team with a decent frontcourt (Boston, Orlando, Miami*) will be able to do serious damage. Any team with a scoring point guard (Chicago, Miami*) will be able to do serious damage. That's why they're not sniffing a championship this year. They'll put up 110 a game, but give up 114.

*LeBron is simultaneously a great small forward and a great point guard. Carmelo, however, seems to do a consistently good job of guarding him.

It's hard to speak on New York's prospects going forward because so much is in play. A healthy Chris Paul makes them a title contender. Deron Williams does not. But Paul is over a year away. The new CBA may make it difficult even then to afford him. Without Paul, maybe New York wins 48 games next season and loses in the first round. Does D'Antoni stay in that situation? Probably. But will new GM Isiah Thomas want him around? Will Amare's knees hold up to another couple of seasons in the D'Antoni system? I've jumped to a few conclusions here, but none of them is conceivable.

Ultimately, I'd have to see a lot more before I consider the Knicks a title contender. Even with Carmelo and Amare, I don't see them beating Boston, Orlando, Miami or Chicago. As a Nuggets fan, that provides some consolation. The worst thing that could happen would be to see Carmelo win a championship within a few years of this trade. I think disaster will be averted.

I don't doubt that Carmelo believes he'll be able to win in New York, but I still believe he had just as good a chance to win in Denver as he does now. Denver sheds a lot of bad contracts this summer. Who knows how the Nuggets might have used that money to build around Carmelo? Bryant, Duncan and Nowitzski are heading into the twilights of their careers. We could have seen Carmelo and Durant duke it out over the next decade. Instead, Carmelo can now look forward to spending the next ten years of his career losing to James and Wade, Rose and Howard.